How do you pick the next stock to invest in? One way would be to spend days of research browsing through thousands of publicly traded companies. However, an easier way is to look at the stocks that smart money investors are collectively bullish on. Hedge funds and other institutional investors usually invest large amounts of capital and have to conduct due diligence while choosing their next pick. They don’t always get it right, but, on average, their stock picks historically generated strong returns after adjusting for known risk factors. With this in mind, let’s take a look at the recent hedge fund activity surrounding Nikola Corporation (NASDAQ:NKLA），並確定對沖基金在這隻股票方面是否具有優勢。
Is Nikola Corporation (NASDAQ:NKLA) a bargain? The best stock pickers were getting more optimistic. The number of long hedge fund bets advanced by 16 in recent months. Nikola Corporation (NASDAQ:NKLA) was in 29 hedge funds’ portfolios at the end of the second quarter of 2020. The all time high for this statistics is 13. This means the bullish number of hedge fund positions in this stock currently sits at its all time high. Our calculations also showed that NKLA isn’t among the 對沖基金中30種最受歡迎的股票 （單擊以獲取第一季度排名，並觀看視頻以快速了解排名前2位的股票）。 視頻：觀看我們的視頻，了解最受歡迎的5只對沖基金股票。
那麼，為什麼在做出任何投資決定之前我們要關注對沖基金的情緒？ 我們的研究表明，在1999年至2016年期間，對沖基金的小盤股精選每年以兩位數的優勢擊敗市場，但近年來的表現一直在下降。 然而，自500年56月以來，我們仍然能夠提前確定一組精選的對沖基金持倉量，其表現優於標準普爾2017 ETF超過XNUMX個百分點（在這裡查看詳細信息）。 我們還能夠提前確定一組精選的對沖基金持倉，這些持股在10年至2006年期間每年的表現都落後於市場2017個百分點。有趣的是，近年來這些股票的表現不佳一直在增加。 長期做空而做空這些股票的投資者，在27年至2015年之間，每年的回報率將超過2017％。自2017年XNUMX月以來，我們一直在季度新聞通訊中跟踪和分享這些股票的清單。 即使您對做空股票感到不舒服，您也至少應避免在我們做空投資組合中的股票上建立多頭頭寸。
Key Square資本管理公司的Scott Bessent
At Insider Monkey we leave no stone unturned when looking for the next great investment idea. For example, this “mom” trader turned $2000 into $2 million within 2 years. So, we are checking out her best trade idea of the month. We read hedge fund investor letters and listen to stock pitches at hedge fund conferences. We go through lists like the 10 最賺錢的公司 in the world to pick the best large-cap stocks to buy. Even though we recommend positions in only a tiny fraction of the companies we analyze, we check out as many stocks as we can. Keeping this in mind let’s take a glance at the latest hedge fund action encompassing Nikola Corporation (NASDAQ:NKLA).
Hedge fund activity in Nikola Corporation (NASDAQ:NKLA)
At the end of the second quarter, a total of 29 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey held long positions in this stock, a change of 123% from the previous quarter. On the other hand, there were a total of 13 hedge funds with a bullish position in NKLA a year ago. With hedge funds’ sentiment swirling, there exists a select group of notable hedge fund managers who were adding to their stakes significantly (or already accumulated large positions).
在這些資金中， ValueAct Capital held the most valuable stake in Nikola Corporation (NASDAQ:NKLA), which was worth $788.4 million at the end of the third quarter. On the second spot was Key Square Capital Management which amassed $135.1 million worth of shares. Citadel Investment Group, Hudson Bay Capital Management, and Luxor Capital Group were also very fond of the stock, becoming one of the largest hedge fund holders of the company. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Key Square Capital Management allocated the biggest weight to Nikola Corporation (NASDAQ:NKLA), around 32% of its 13F portfolio. 綠柱石資本管理 is also relatively very bullish on the stock, dishing out 12.83 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to NKLA.
As aggregate interest increased, key money managers were leading the bulls’ herd. ValueAct Capital, managed by Jeffrey Ubben, established the biggest position in Nikola Corporation (NASDAQ:NKLA). ValueAct Capital had $788.4 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Scott Bessent’s Key Square Capital Management also made a $135.1 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The following funds were also among the new NKLA investors: Sander Gerber’s 哈德遜灣資本管理, Christian Leone’s Luxor Capital Group, and David Alexander Witkin’s Beryl Capital Management.
Let’s go over hedge fund activity in other stocks similar to Nikola Corporation (NASDAQ:NKLA). We will take a look at Marathon Petroleum Corp (NYSE:MPC), Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F), Prudential Financial Inc (NYSE:保誠), Consolidated Edison, Inc. (NYSE:ED), Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE:VLO), Xilinx, Inc. (NASDAQ:XLNX）和TransDigm Group Incorporated（NYSE：TDG). This group of stocks’ market caps match NKLA’s market cap.
[table] Ticker, No of HFs with positions, Total Value of HF Positions (x1000), Change in HF Position MPC,62,1444528,5 F,30,791591,-3 PRU,26,437049,-2 ED,31,714139,6 VLO,39,157343,-6 XLNX,47,1054542,9 TDG,62,6065530,4 Average,42.4,1523532,1.9 [/table]
As you can see these stocks had an average of 42.4 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1524 million. That figure was $1382 million in NKLA’s case. Marathon Petroleum Corp (NYSE:MPC) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Prudential Financial Inc (NYSE:保誠) is the least popular one with only 26 bullish hedge fund positions. Nikola Corporation (NASDAQ:NKLA) is not the least popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still below average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for NKLA is 44.2. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly negative signal and we’d rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed that 最受歡迎的10大股票 among hedge funds returned 41.4% in 2019 and outperformed the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 10.1 percentage points. These stocks gained 23.8% in 2020 through September 14th and surpassed the market by 17.6 percentage points. Unfortunately NKLA wasn’t nearly as popular as these 10 stocks (hedge fund sentiment was quite bearish); NKLA investors were disappointed as the stock returned -47% since Q2 and underperformed the market. If you are interested in investing in large cap stocks with huge upside potential, you should check out the 最受歡迎的10大股票 對沖基金中，因為這些股票中的大多數已經在2020年跑贏大盤。
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